UK Ministry of Justice developing murder prediction algorithm
The UK Ministry of Justice is developing an algorithm to predict which people are most likely to commit murder by analysing data on thousands of individuals including crime victims. Critics warn the system will reinforce discrimination by encoding bias from institutionally racist police and government data, and argue crime prediction algorithms are inherently flawed.
What happened
The UK Ministry of Justice is developing an algorithm designed to predict which individuals are most likely to commit murder. The system analyses thousands of people's information, including crime victims, to identify those at higher risk of committing serious violent offences and to review offender characteristics that increase homicide risk.
The project's existence was discovered by pressure group Statewatch through Freedom of Information requests. According to the Ministry of Justice, the project is for research purposes only and aims to explore innovative data science techniques for risk assessment of homicide.
Reported impact
Critics argue the system will reinforce structural discrimination by using data from the UK's police and Home Office, which are described as institutionally racist. Sofia Lyall of Statewatch stated that algorithmic crime prediction systems profile people as criminals before they have committed any offence.
Index analysis
Research shows that algorithmic systems for predicting crime are inherently flawed, according to Statewatch researchers. Lyall warned that such systems will code in bias toward certain groups.
Governance controls
The Ministry of Justice states the project is for research purposes only and officials underline they will not be making arrests based on the algorithm's predictions at present.
Classification
Sources and evidence
This record was researched and written by the Index, based on the following original reporting.