UK Ministry of Justice developing covert murder prediction system
The UK Ministry of Justice developed a machine learning system intended to predict which individuals are most likely to commit murder, using data on hundreds of thousands of people including those with no criminal convictions. Civil rights advocates raised concerns about privacy invasion, potential racial bias, and the risk of profiling innocent people based on mental health and disability status.
What happened
The UK Ministry of Justice has developed a system called 'Sharing Data to Improve Risk Assessment' (initially termed the 'homicide prediction project') designed to predict which individuals are most likely to commit murder. The system uses personal data including criminal convictions, mental health information, addiction records, self-harm incidents, and disability status from between 100,000 and 500,000 people.
Civil rights group Statewatch revealed through freedom of information requests that the system uses data not only from individuals with criminal convictions but also from crime victims and people never convicted of offences. The MoJ Data Sharing Agreement with Greater Manchester Police and Metropolitan Police includes data on suspects, victims, witnesses, and missing people.
Reported impact
Critics expressed concerns that the system's data includes information on innocent people, potentially resulting in the criminalisation of innocent people. Civil liberties organisations warned of increased surveillance, racial bias, and erosion of civil liberties particularly among marginalised communities.
Questions were raised about the use of mental health and victim status data for profiling, creating ethical concerns about presumption of guilt, and about potential loss of privacy and racial and other forms of discrimination. The MoJ's claim that the project is only for research was questioned after documents referred to the 'future operationalisation' of the system.
Index analysis
The predecessor tool OASys, which the MoJ claims the new system seeks to improve, has previously demonstrated racial bias in predicting reoffending. The new system's incorporation of 'health markers' data identified as having 'significant predictive power' raises concerns about whether mental health and disability status will perpetuate or amplify such bias.
Governance controls
The MoJ produced a Data Protection Impact Assessment and Internal Risk Assessment for the project. However, Statewatch noted a lack of transparency, with the MoJ stating the project is for research purposes only while internal documents refer to the system's 'future operationalisation'.
Classification
Sources and evidence
This record was researched and written by the Index, based on the following original reporting.